Books I Packed for Boston

People sometimes ask me to recommend books on innovation and regulation.

I recently moved to Boston for my Harvard fellowship, which will be devoted to writing my own book on regulation and innovation.  I thought I'd share a bit of the bookshelf I boxed up for the trip.

It's an eclectic mix with authors ranging from a Nobel Peace Prize winner to an anarchist.

I'd already packed others, including the indispensable book on consumer financial protection, Reference Guide to Regulatory Compliance, by my friend and former colleague Lyn Farrell.

The old book in the box - standing vertically with the spine mostly obscured -- is Ralph Nader's 1965 game-changer, Unsafe at Any Speed.  That was a half-century ago, when the consumer protection laws were young, and so was I, and so was Ralph Nader.  Time for an update?

Readers:  What do you suggest I read?

A Wonky Week

In the last three days, I brought three new technologies into my life.  I got Windows 10 (and therefore Cortana).  I got Google Photo. And I got an Apple Watch.

The speed with which they are changing me is breathtaking.

Both Siri and Cortana are tending to my every need (and by the way, they are funny).

The watch is gently tapping my wrist with incredibly helpful reminders.

And my photos are creating stories about my life, and even animations (my watch lets me know they are there.)

I've only begun to learn to use all this, but four things strike me about what they mean for financial services.

First, they all take the initiative to offer me help. When fully integrated with financial products, this will close the access gap for the millions of people who don't know where to start or whom to ask.  Help will be offered. Guidance will start where the person is, and go from there.

Second, voice technology will be the financial democratizer. When you can get cheap guidance by having a conversation, the doors open wide for millions of consumers.

Third, they are all using artificial intelligence - neural networks - to think and learn.  They need very little instruction and set up. They are figuring out what I want and need and like, and just getting it for me.

Fourth, they all showed up at the same time. Any one of them alone is transformative.  To have them all arrive together, allinstantly and automatically weaving their activities together for me - did I mention the word "breathtaking"?

Note that they are from three different companies - Microsoft, Google, and Apple. But they are all busily integrating with each other as they orbit around me and my needs. They are consumer-centric, not product-centric.

They reinforce the critical point that new technologies are converging on consumer finance.  Each is huge, alone. When they combine, everything changes. And remember, these are early-stage innovations. They're improving fast.

They are all trying to astonish and delight me, and are succeeding beyond what I could have imagined a week ago. In the past three days, I've probably said the words, "oh wow," a hundred times.

Yes, I know all this will bring lots of new problems. Huge ones.

Still....wow.

Photo Credit to 9to5mac.com

Game of Regulatory Thrones

GAME OF REGULATORY THRONES – Winter is coming

Like all Game of Thrones fans, I’m still reeling from last week’s season finale. Unlike most, though, I’m also thinking about banking (and I don’t mean the Iron Bank).

A few days before the last episode, I had spoken on innovation and regulation at CFSI’s Emerge conference in Austin. Answering an audience question, I suggested the financial regulators consider creating an interagency council on how technology innovation will impact their work. My remark sparked a Twitter exchange with CFSI’s Rob Levy about whether such an approach would be practical, given that the regulators kind of have their hands full.

Rob seemed to me to be a likely GoT fan, so I tweeted a message to him – “winter is coming.”

Turns out, he’s mainly into House of Cards.  But that thread got me thinking further about the challenge the agencies face in regulating innovation with sufficient speed, clarity, and consistency, while filtering out the bad from the good.

If you’re not into the GoT phenomenon, the first thing to know is that Game of Thrones is not (as I embarrassingly once thought) a game. Rather, it’s HBO’s wildly popular series based on the Song of Ice and Fire books by George R.R. Martin. Its story is set in a magical past where seven powerful families rule kingdoms within a far-flung empire and vie to dominate it all by winning the central Iron Throne.

This drama is profoundly engrossing. So engrossing that both the characters and the audience constantly forget that something else is happening. A far greater menace is gathering, one that seems likely to obliterate all these warring parties, together. A supposedly extinct race of superhuman beings called Wight Walkers has reawakened in the north, beyond a high ice wall that has been guarded against their possible return for thousands of years.

From the series’ very first scene, the audience knows this risk is rising. All of the audience and some of the characters are reminded of it intermittently throughout the story. A few prescient characters fully understand it and in fact are playing the game specifically to unite a kingdom that can fight back. 

For most, though, this overarching danger is unnoticed. Many scoff at warnings, thinking the problem doesn’t even exist. The rest figure that, at worst, it’s remote – distant in both space and time. Everyone has urgent priorities -- here, now, absorbing all their attention.

Of all the kingdoms inside the wall, only the northernmost – the one closest to the ancient danger -- has retained some cultural alertness to it.  For centuries, they have cautioned each other with the words, “winter is coming.”

Game of Thrones is obviously an imperfect metaphor for our regulatory system. Our financial agencies rarely fight, much less seek to rule each other. And they of course do see and work with the big changes evolving in technology.

Furthermore, tech innovation is not a menacing force. To the contrary, it is bringing massively positive impacts as well as new risks.

Still, though, I think this metaphor merits thought. I have become convinced that technology disruption is the most important issue now facing the financial system, and the financial consumer. I think the regulators will have to move it toward the center of their agendas – despite still being overloaded with post-crisis work -- rather than mainly viewing it as a component of other topics.

And I hope they will do this together, because these changes are coming fast, in huge and converging technology trends that will sweep around them all – all the agencies, all types and sizes of financial providers, and all financial consumers, bringing change that needs unified collaboration and thought.

Do you agree?  Disagree? Please share your ideas!

And if you’re a GoT fan, feel free to tie your comment to the story. I’m always hoping to spark more dialogue on my website so our readers can benefit from each other’s thinking (I receive lots of input, but most of it comes privately just to me). In writing this post, I fleetingly considered inviting readers to suggest which GoT characters remind them most of real figures in our financial and regulatory community. I abandoned the idea, of course, as images came to my head of nominations for real-life counterparts for, say, Ramsey Bolton, or  Joffrey Baratheon.  We want to have fun and some edge here, but we don’t want to be mean!

Within that guideline, if you think GoT offers parallels and lessons for financial innovation and regulation, please post them!

To get you started (and to prove I’m not the only person pondering GoT and banking together), enjoy this thoughtful Forbes article by contributor Adam Ozimek on why Westeros lacks a central bank…and whether the Night’s Watch could help (Sam as the next Fed chair?).

Maybe actually spring is coming, if we prepare.

Heading to Harvard – a senior fellowship to write my book on innovation and regulation

I’m delighted to share some news about me.  I’ve been offered a Senior Fellowship at Harvard’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government in the John F. Kennedy School of Government to write my book.

A year ago, I left Treliant with plans to produce “the book that hasn’t been written on the financial crisis,” exploring what happened to consumers and what should happen now.  As I worked on it, though, I found the topic morphing under my fingertips at the keyboard.  My research, conversations, and thinking kept bringing me back to one theme, one force that will make consumers’ lives dramatically better, or frighteningly worse – or both – in the years ahead.  That force is technology.

Exactly a half-century ago, Ralph Nader’s book Unsafe at Any Speed launched the consumer movement and with it, a long public policy push to protect people through regulation. I participated in some of this in my early Washington career. Looking back, the phrase that comes to my mind is, it seemed like a good idea at the time. Actually, some regulatory reforms were clearly beneficial.  Others, not so much – many brought costs that outweigh their benefits. Still others originally made sense, but lost usefulness over time. Those, along with many that outright failed, generally linger on.

Through it all, our laws, rules, and regulatory agencies have accumulated and political debate has gradually calcified around a binary argument in which one side almost always wants more regulation, and the other nearly always wants less.

My book will argue that what’s needed today is different regulation. The existing framework was created to address 20th century issues using 20th century logic and methods. Suddenly, now, the digital age is making it both possible to do vastly better, and necessary to rethink what and how we regulate. With innovation rapidly reshaping consumer behaviors and disrupting traditional industries, change will overwhelm many aspects of the current system.  

I’m going to propose a new approach. It will put the consumer at the center. It will push aside deadlocked debates, explore today’s top consumer risks and opportunities, assess diverse regulatory approaches, and offer a new framework. We’ll look at the tech trends, industry activities, innovation models, consumer habits, demographics, regulatory tools, and political realities, among many things. We will aim for the tech alchemy that expands access and fairness together, instead of trading one against the other.

In the end, I’ll suggest both practical, short-term steps and a strategic vision for the future.

Importantly, my book’s scope will reach beyond financial services, to tackle a broad spectrum of consumer protection regulation and industry practice.

My working title right now?  Safe At Any Speed: Protecting Consumers in the Digital Age. 

Or maybe, “Regulation Innovation,” a seeming oxymoron….

The Mossavar-Rahmani Center at Harvard “sponsors research, facilitates dialogue, and seeks answers to problems at the interface of the public and private sectors.”  Its Senior Fellows are remarkable people ranging from top federal and state executives to leading thinkers in business and law.  I am honored to join their ranks. 

My appointment begins July 1. I’ll be moving there for a year in September to do research and writing, teach a study group, convene thoughtful people, and learn from Boston’s fast-flowering culture of tech innovation.

I will continue my other consulting, public speaking, podcasts, and (soon-to-launch) series of video briefings on regulatory compliance strategy (albeit with tightened prioritization).

I’ll also be continuing to write this blog. My journey over the past year included having a significant health issue arise last summer. I’m fully well now, but it’s a reasonable guess that cutting edge technology saved my life by both detecting and treating the problem. No one is more passionate than I about the promise of innovation. Still, too many technophiles don’t pause to ponder the coming risks.

This blog, and my book, will strive to understand both the upside and downside of innovation, and how best to foster and leverage the good while preventing the bad.

It’s a daunting task. If you’re like me, reading this already has you thinking of issues, themes, objections, and ideas.  Share them with me!  Let’s have a conversation, here. And invite your friends – including from outside financial services – to subscribe to the blog and podcasts by email, enter your email address at www.jsbarefoot.com, and join in the brainstorming.

We need two things – courage to see and speak the truth, and cross-pollination of insight.

Tell me what you think!

Disrupting the Law (War and Peace-Style): My new article in Fintech Law Report

Last January I spoke at a round-table about the four huge, converging tech trends that are on a collision course with consumer financial regulation. The event prompted an invitation from my friend Jim Sivon of Squire Patton Boggs  to write an article based on my talk for Thomson Reuters’ Fintech Law Report.

Lawyers being, well, lawyers, the magazine wanted a lengthy piece – 10 – 30 pages.  (I sometimes think attorneys and academics are the only folks still reading long material outside of books, as time and attention spans relentlessly shrink.)

I told Jim my piece would come in at the low end of the range. As I wrote it, though, I changed my mind.  I was fascinated by the journey this article brought on, trying to envision the actual world these tech trends are creating, and then trying to predict how the regulatory system will, and should, respond.

The article turned out to be l-o-n-g.  It’s not quite War and Peace (1,456 pages), but pretty close -- the longest thing I’ve written in ages other than my own evolving book.

I mention the length because I don’t want you to open it, start reading, put it aside until you have free time, and then never come back – since schedule slack will never come.

Instead, if you’re overloaded, start by scanning through the article.  It has two halves.

The Four Tech Trends:  The first part outlines the four big transformative tech trends. I’m pretty sure you’ll find some things here – maybe a lot – that you don’t know or haven’t thought about.  As the article explains, these trends are not only coming fast. They are also converging.  Once they intersect, everything will escalate and accelerate.

The Regulatory Disruption:   The second half tries to envision how law and regulation will cope with this shifting kaleidoscope of tech-driven change.

The article is HERE. 

Remember:

Financial services is the first industry to face tech-driven disruption while also being very highly regulated.

The innovation will both help and harm consumers. Regulators will be hard-pressed to allow the good and block the bad.

Innovation will not only make it necessary to update laws and rules. It will also make it possible to do better, at last.

Enjoy the article. Share your thoughts here at the blog. And subscribe by email…click HERE.

Harvard and Hogwarts: Magic for the payment system

Reducto!

That’s Harry Potter’s spell for making things blow up, which came to my mind last month at the Harvard Innovation Project conference, sponsored by PYMNTS.com and moderated by Fox Business anchor Liz Claman.

We met on the still-snowy Harvard campus in Memorial Hall, whose dining area strongly evokes its counterpart at Harry’s school, Hogwarts. A huge stained glass window and vaulted, timbered ceiling soared above long rows of tables where participants excitedly discussed the tech wizardry that’s exploding traditional payments.

As with fictional magic, these innovations have enormous power to do both good and ill, depending on who wields the wand and why. We saw delightful technologies that can bring almost unimaginable convenience and empowerment to consumers. Nearly all of them, though, can also be used for “dark arts” innovation that could confuse consumers and undermine privacy, data security, and control.  

These highlights – all intertwined – still have me pondering:

“Uberization”

First, a goal of many innovators is to make the payment process disappear for the consumer, submerging it invisibly into the experience being bought. People call this “Uberization,” since an Uber ride ends with our simply exiting the car – the trip payment, tip, and documentation were prearranged and are already done. 

Technology will enable this approach to spread. We will travel, for instance, with logistics being made and adjusted for us automatically as we move – flights, cars, schedules changed based on local traffic, and so on – with the payments handled invisibly. Similarly, in-store mobile payments will increasingly let us skip the checkout line and just walk out the door, barely noticing how much we’ve paid. This will bring great convenience but will also cause concern that consumers will spend more than they mean to. 

At the same time, though, mobile payments will fuel the growth of PFM apps – personal financial management – that can greatly increase awareness and smart management of our money activities.

Which trend will dominate, and for which groups of consumers? Will new technology make people better, worse, or neither at managing their financial lives?

The Internet of Things (IoT)

A second critical question is what principles should guide the burgeoning Internet of Things? Now that tiny computers are embedded in everything around us, the wizards are beginning to connect them with each other and with the larger world. These feed the big data ecosystem with information about us, and also enable us to do new things, or old things more conveniently.

Thus we learn that Amazon will give us a button for the laundry room so that when detergent runs low, one touch will bring us a new supply. We can control our home’s lights and smart thermostat remotely from our phone. Smart devices range from cars, cameras, keys and cell phones to TV’s, watches, baby monitors, and refrigerators. The mobile devices know where we are. Most know when we’ve used them. When did we leave our house, and return? Who was driving our car last night?

Sir Tim Berners Lee, creator of the Worldwide Web, told the Harvard group that if his house key really must communicate with his door lock, he would prefer the dialogue to be just between them, not stored in the cloud and accessible, legally or illegally, by others. With a wry smile he said, “We all ought to be very afraid, all the time.”

What principles should guide the linking and use of our data, and what control, if any, should consumers have?

Harry’s Invisibility Cloak

That brings me to privacy. Harry Potter has a rare magic tool -- an invisibility cloak that enables him to walk unseen among unsuspecting people. The devices around us are like this, watching us and listening without our noticing.

The X-Box that manages my living room flat screen sees and hears me whenever I’m near it – that’s how I can command it by voice or have it coach me in a workout. Merchants are using GPS to offer us nearby bargains, and using facial recognition cameras to analyze our reactions to products. Our devices capture the entertainment we choose, the topics we Google, what we buy, where we travel, and much more. We are rarely, or never, conscious of being invisibly observed and reported on, to unknown people with unknown plans for us.

We click “I agree” to all this, because we need our digital lives. Is this good, or bad? Should consumers have more granular control? Should companies only collect data needed for a narrow purpose, rather than all they can gather? Should consumers be compensated for their information? Would compensation and constraints impede pro-consumer innovation? Do people care? Is privacy dead?

Platform 9 ¾

The Harry Potter wizards enter their world at London’s King’s Cross train station, Platform 9 ¾, where a seemingly solid wall is a magic gateway to an alternate universe.

Those of us in financial services think of “payments” as a financial topic. Really, though, today’s payment innovations are a passageway into a new universe in which people will have whole new kinds of powers operating under whole new sets of rules. Massive data, analytics, and mobile technology are converging to make payments not a discrete process, but rather an integral, unseen component in our shopping, communicating, socializing, learning, playing, sharing, relaxing – nearly every aspect of our practical, economic, social, and emotional lives.

Are our industry and regulatory frameworks prepared to optimize this new world for consumers?

Wizard Wisdom

Hogwarts headmaster Albus Dumbledore says to Harry, “It is not our attributes that make us what we are, Potter. It is our choices."

What choices should financial services companies, innovators, and policy makers be discussing amidst all this tech magic? 

I would love to hear your ideas.

Too Busy To Think

I had lunch with a wise woman recently, a friend who is positioned through role and experience to see all the important trends in banking.  Over hot clam chowder in a snowy old city, we talked about innovation.  We compared notes – what we’ve been seeing, hearing, doing.

We agreed that today’s technology change is too big, and moving far too fast, for either banks or regulators to absorb it without wrenching disruption. Some shifts are still mostly hidden because they have not yet converged. When they do, everything will accelerate.

My friend put down her spoon and looked at me.  She said, “A lot of bank executives listen to these predictions and say, that’s all fascinating but I don’t have time to think about it.  Everyone has a mountain of practical things on their desks -- regulation, especially.  Plus they figure the big changes are far in the future. They think they’ll be able to address them later – or they plan to retire before they have to.”

She’s right, and it worries me. Every bank is working on tech issues of course, but many will be blindsided and broken by what’s coming at them.  If they disappear, customers will be hurt, even while benefitting from innovation.  And the regulators themselves face incredible challenges.

We explore these issues here at my blog (and in coming podcasts), so please keep coming back. Meanwhile, try the suggestions below, no matter how busy you are.

1. Move tech innovation from the edges of your work to the center.  The future hinges on it.
2. Name a chief innovation officer, on the senior team, and immerse the bank and board in learning.  Start with these topics: mobile payments, big data, artificial intelligence, natural language voice technology, and of course data security (plus, pay attention to digital currency).  Send your people to tech events like Money 20/20, Finovate and Singularity University. Watch TED talks. Read Wired and Fast Company.  
3. Shift from product- and channel-centric thinking to being customer-centric.  Then build solutions to wow customers and make their lives better, rather than using technology to automate what you already do.
4. Connect your innovation team at the hip – the business, IT and risk/regulatory people should sit in the same place and do it together. This is how nonbank innovators create new things.  It works better than silos.
5. If you’re going to close branches (and even if you aren’t), help your lower-income and senior customers switch to mobile, now.
6. Obsess on deserving your customer’s trust. Consumers will be choosing financial offerings through their cell phones, using simple tools that amalgamate information about product terms, complaints, customer ratings, comparison pricing, and much more. It is going to get easy to do this. People will migrate to providers they are sure they can trust about every single thing -- every product, rate, fee, sales tactic, everything.  Some will use a nonbank middleman, to help them select. Be ready to win that contest.

Here are two quick reads:

First, BNA’s Chris Bruce has a great overview of the fintech issues that will dominate this year (and was nice enough to quote me).  It’s below:

Reproduced with permission from Daily Report for Executives, 17 DER S-28 (Jan. 27, 2015). Copyright 2015 by The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. (800-372-1033) <http://www.bna.com>

Bloomberg BNA - "Finance Tech: Cybersecurity, Payment Processing, Virtual Currency, Patents"

Second, consider this analysis of exponential technology growth by venture capital investor Niv Dror. It will stay in your head and make you think.

DIARY OF A MAD FINANCIAL SYSTEM

December’s release of early findings from the U.S. Financial Diaries Project should change our thinking on how to expand financial access.

The financial lives of lower-income families are mostly a closed book, poorly understood by both financial companies and policy-makers seeking to meet their needs.  Since generalized consumer data mask vast complexity in how underserved households operate, the Diaries project was launched to dig deeper.  Led by the Center for Financial Services Innovation (disclosure -- I serve on CFSI’s board of directors) and NYU Wagner’s Financial Access Initiative, the work is supported by the Citi Foundation, Ford Foundation, and Omidyar Network.  NYU’s Jonathan Morduch and CFSI’s Rachel Schneider organized a unique research team that intimately observed and chronicled the real financial lives of 200 families for a year. 

The results explode much of the conventional thinking about financial health and access. 

Volatility is the key

Amidst many rich findings, one key insight stands out:  For many struggling families, the problem is not insufficient income.  It’s insufficient stability – volatility and unpredictability, in both income and expenses.

Even in households whose annual income exceeds their annual bills, unmanageable dynamism in both inflows and outflows leaves many people in periodic deficit.  Since they lack a savings cushion and good options in today’s financial services market, these shortfalls create huge and lasting damage.

This means that addressing instability, itself, is critical.  Unfortunately, that focus is largely absent from traditional thinking.  For decades, public policy has assumed that these consumers mainly need more availability or affordability of standard bank products.  Even our terminology reflects this – we call people “underserved,” or “under-banked” and define the solution as easier “access” to banks.  Efforts ranging from the Community Reinvestment Act to regulatory jawboning urge banks to offer more products like basic checking accounts and especially credit – mortgage credit in particular.  While these measures have yielded benefits and remain important, they have settled into a fairly stale policy debate over a narrow set of options.  The Diaries research should catalyze new thinking. 

The researchers found widely varied consumer situations, most of which elude conventional stereotypes. Many participants work full-time, and more.  Some own their homes.  Some have college educations.  Some clearly are upwardly mobile, budgeting, building credit scores, and even saving.  They range from two-parent families to single mothers and mature single men, and include new immigrants and urban and rural households from coast to coast. Some participants rely on seasonal income (one in the tax advice industry) and on sporadic sources like caring for foster children or renting out rooms.  Some have bank accounts, mortgages, and credit cards. All, though, live at the financial edge, vulnerable to – and often in unsustainable debt because of – unexpected shortfalls. 

The Diaries participants use an array of financial strategies that weave together the formal and informal economy. Many rely on family for emergency loans and/or in-kind help, often in reciprocal arrangements that can work well for all. Some have both bank accounts and payday loans.  A high percentage have at least one serious health problem and manage that cost by adjusting medications (medicalexpense is a key source of volatility). Nearly half don’t have credit cards; of those who do, about a third are maxed out. Many are very savvy about their financial lives, managing income and outflows with precision timing to cover their bills (see my 6/30 blog post “Underserved and Underestimated").  Many use the Earned Income Tax Credit essentially as a forced saving mechanism. One person “saves through Mom” as the spending gate-keeper. Many save “in a sprint” when needed, or “save for soon” to meet upcoming needs but not long goals like education, retirement, or accumulating a financial shock absorber.

New ideas

The Diaries’ December kickoff featured Vox.com’s Danielle Kurtzleben and a panel of Professor Morduch; the Urban Institute’s Ellen Seidman; former CFPB official Raj Date; and Bill Bynum of Hope Credit Union in Mississippi, who also chairs the CFPB’s Consumer Advisory Board. The panel and invitation-only audience voiced optimism that the financial system can actually solve much of this problem.  Raj Date noted that people either borrow at 0% from friends and family or at 300% in payday loans, arguing for something in between (his company, FenwaySummer, offers a subprime credit card). Ellen Seidman cited the need for more community-focused institutions like the Hope Credit Union run by Bill Bynum, who pointed out that over 90% of post-recession branch closings have been in low- and moderate-income census tracts.

The session left me pondering the mismatch between the current system and financially-marginal families.  American Express estimates 70 million Americans live at the edge of the formal financial system, spending a lifetime average of $40,000 in unnecessary fees -- $89 billion in fees and interest in 2012.  This is a huge market with clear financial capacity.  These consumers can’t readily access mainstream products partly due to the volatility problem, which clearly limits creditworthiness by traditional standards.  Still, they can and do pay for financial services, at high prices, mainly at non-banks and in the informal economy.  Could new insights like the Diaries findings, combined with new technology and fresh thinking, bring them better options?

Here are some thoughts:

• Payday Lending and Bank Overdrafts: 

CFPB is considering how best to regulate these two financial products that aim to cover emergency cash shortfalls.  The Bureau should study the Diaries’ sharp distinction between consumers whose problems are inadequate income versus volatility.  Aaron Klein of the Bipartisan Policy Center has framed this as differentiating insolvency from illiquidity (see link here). Insolvent consumers are inevitably harmed by getting credit.  Illiquid consumers, in contrast, can benefit from emergency credit if it doesn’t trap them. This argues for practical regulatory standards on ability-to-pay and more broadly, rules that enable banks and non-banks to offer fair, profitable, and innovative products.

• Savings: 

As Bill Bynum noted at the Diaries event, most people experience financial volatility, but affluent people weather it through savings (and access to well-priced credit).  Maybe it’s time for both policy-makers and industry to emphasize savings options and incentives, and deemphasize credit. Ideas include more focus on automatic and opt-out savings arrangements and innovative savings rewards programs, including ones styled on sweepstakes and lottery models that foster wide engagement.

• Insurance: 

The classic financial tool for covering unpredictable events is insurance.  Advocates have long critiqued traditional credit insurance as a high-cost add-on that sometimes overstates coverage and/or is sold too aggressively -- not to mention that it only pays off the related loan.  Innovators have begun talking about broader, affordable insurance for people who live within their means but face timing shortfalls. Solutions should, again, distinguish between illiquidity and insolvency, and regulators should prevent abusive designs and sales practices.  Meanwhile, the continuing policy debate on health insurance reform should include focus on the outsized impact of unexpected medical expenses on financial system access, upward mobility, and government dependency, regardless of what the ultimate outcomes may be.

• Alternative structures: 

Another promising approach lies in linking successful nontraditional and informal financial arrangements into the mainstream system.  One example is Jose Qunonez’ Mission Asset Fund in San Francisco, which tracks repayment records of people borrowing within Latin American-style lending circles and creates data usable by mainstream credit bureaus, helping borrowers build formal credit scores.  There’s also growing exploration of how to use big data to develop nontraditional but predictive metrics on creditworthiness.

• Mobile PFM: 

Lower-income people are disproportionately high users of smart phones, including for financial tasks (see my 10/12/14 blog post The Benefits of Bitcoin).  This is a game-changer, potentially opening whole new ways for people to improve their financial lives.  Over time, PFM – personal financial management – in smart phones will permit effortless savings, budgeting, warnings against dangerous product terms, and much more. Think about BBVA’s Simple.com account, which takes the “simple” but powerful step of displaying the customer’s “safe to spend” number more prominently than the account balance.  Such services won’t help all consumers but as PFM tools evolve and converge, they could revolutionize consumers’ options and behaviors.

• Regulatory clarity: 

As I argued in Forbes last fall, a major barrier to widened financial access is the industry’s fear of enforcement and reputation risk in areas where regulatory standards are subjective and evolving, such as in defining discriminatory lending and “unfair and deceptive” practices.  The more regulators can reduce this uncertainty, the more financial companies, especially banks, will do in underserved markets.

• Community Reinvestment Act: 

It’s time to revisit CRA, which dates from 1977 when banks were local, banking was branched-based, and policy concerns focused overwhelmingly on access to credit, especially mortgages. The bank supervisory agencies are gradually updating CRA policy through new question-and-answer guidance. Their thinking should incorporate the Diaries insights and consider giving banks CRA credit for innovations of the kinds outlined above.

• Innovators:  

Speaking of innovation, both startups and the innovation labs at big financial companies are busily leveraging technology to reach traditionally underserved consumers affordably and in ways that offer better choices, better information, and more control.  Regulators should encourage these efforts, and carefully not stifle them, while also watching for signs of emerging abuse.

• More research:  

We need more research like the unique but costly Diaries project, deepening the insights, identifying high-impact solutions, and also looking at the longer-term patterns of these consumers.

If fewer people struggled with financial volatility, vulnerability, and damage, the larger economy and society would benefit.  So would financial companies serving them profitably as an “emerging” market, much like today’s expanding markets the developing world.

Follow the Diaries work here.  And if you haven’t seen American Express’ film Spent, download it for free and share it with your organization. 

Please also think about fresh ideas, for industry, regulators, innovators, advocates, or academics.  Send me your thoughts, and please share the blog with colleagues and others who might be interested!